Americans will spend a staggering $10 billion online on Black Friday 2020, as stores lie quiet and people shop from home amid a spike in COVID-19 cases.
Research from Adobe Analytics predicts online spending on the busiest shopping day of the season will surge 39 percent compared to spending on Black Friday 2019, providing a small beacon of hope for struggling retailers after months of slumping sales and businesses toppling into bankruptcy.
In normal times, Black Friday is the busiest shopping day of the year, drawing millions of shoppers eager to get started on their holiday spending.
But the raging coronavirus pandemic kept crowds thin at malls and stores across the country this year.
The number of people hospitalized with COVID-19 across America has surged to its highest levels since the pandemic began and health experts warned the country is in for a dark few weeks.
But while the spike in cases is threatening the economy's fitful recovery from the sudden plunge in the spring and has led to dramatically diminished crowds of shoppers in stores, it's not all bad news for retailers as many customers are expected to turn to online shopping instead.
Americans will spend a staggering $10 billion online on Black Friday 2020, as stores sit quiet and people shop from home amid a spike in COVID-19 cases. Shoppers look for Black Friday deals at the Ellenton Premium Outlet stores Friday in Ellenton
Staff members wear protective masks at Macy's store in New York while more shoppers stay home and shop online this year
A lone man visits the Shops at Hudson Yards during early opening for the Black Friday sales in Manhattan
Thanksgiving Day hit a new record online as spending reached $5.1 billion, up 21.5 percent compared to a year ago, according to Adobe Analytics, which measures sales at 80 of the top 100 U.S. online retailers.
Among the most popular items were Lego sets, Barbie toys, and kid scooters, HP laptops, and Apple Watches, according to Adobe.
The popularity of Netflix's 'Queen's Gambit' has boosted sales for chess-related items by more than threefold compared to the previous month, Adobe said.
And Cyber Monday, the Monday after Thanksgiving, will remain the biggest online shopping day of the year with $12.7 billion in sales, a 35 percent jump, it forecasts.
The National Retail Federation, the nation's largest retail trade group, has also taken an optimistic view, predicting that shoppers will be looking for reasons to celebrate during this challenging time.
The trade group expects sales for the November and December period to increase between 3.6 percent and 5.2 percent over 2019 compared with a 4 percent increase the year before.
Holiday sales have averaged gains of 3.5 percent over the past five years.
'After all they've been through, we think there's going to be a psychological factor that they owe it to themselves and their families to have a better-than-normal holiday,' said NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz.
Retailers were successful in convincing shoppers to spend early by pushing big discounts in mid-October.
And shoppers have shown their willingness to spend for other holidays like Easter and Halloween.
Research from Adobe Analytics predicts online spending on the busiest shopping day of the season will surge 39 percent compared to spending on Black Friday 2019. Shoppers in Ellenton
Shoppers in Ellenton, Fla. Online sales will provide a small beacon of hope for struggling retailers after months of slumping sales and businesses toppling into bankruptcy
The pandemic has already benefited Amazon, which continues to seal its dominance in the online space as jittery shoppers click on their devices instead of venturing into stores.
Likewise, big box chains like Walmart and Target that were allowed to stay open during the spring lockdowns fared far better than department stores and other non-essential retailers that were forced to close.
That disparity helped speed up bankruptcy filings of more than 40 chains, including J.C. Penney and J.Crew, and resulted in hundreds of stores closings.
Department stores and other clothing stores that haven't yet recovered from the closures during the spring will have a hard time making up for lost sales, says Ken Perkins, president of Retail Metrics LLC, a retail research firm.
For the fiscal third quarter, mall-based retailers saw their profits down 20 percent while big box stores and other retailers that operate outside a traditional mall posted a 19 percent increase, according to RetailMetrics' tally of roughly 100 retailers.
For the fiscal fourth quarter, mall-based retailers are expected to see profits down 31 percent, while off-mall stores should see profits up 1 percent.
Ahead of Black Friday, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention labeled shopping in crowded stores during the holidays a 'higher risk' activity and said people should limit any in-person shopping, including at supermarkets.
Instead, the health agency recommended shopping online, visiting outdoor markets or using curbside pickup, where workers bring orders to you in the parking lot.
A shopper walks through Macy's flagship store at Herald Square an hour after its 6a.m. Black Friday opening in New York. In normal times, Black Friday is the busiest shopping day of the year, drawing millions of shoppers eager to get started on their holiday spending
Black Friday shoppers wait in line to enter an shore that opened at 6am at the Citadel Outlets in Commerce, California. The raging coronavirus pandemic kept crowds thin at malls and stores across the country Friday
Black Friday shoppers wait in line to enter an shore that opened at 6am at the Citadel Outlets in Commerce
Many retailers closed their doors on Thanksgiving Day but beefed up their safety protocols to reassure wary customers about coming in on Black Friday.
Stores have also moved their doorbuster deals online and ramped up curbside pickup options as a last grasp at sales before the year ends and they head into the dark days of winter with the pandemic still raging.
The nation's main shopping districts were much quieter than usual this Black Friday.
Macy's Herald Square in New York featured such deals as 50 percent off handbags and 60 percent off women's and men's coats, but there was just a trickle of shoppers at around 7 a.m., an hour after the store opened.
There was no one in line at the service area where customers pick up their online orders and workers could be seen sanitizing door knobs and windows.
The scene looked similarly empty at the nearby Manhattan Mall.
At the Garden State Plaza mall in Paramus, New Jersey, parking spots were easy to find shortly after the mall opened at 7 a.m.
Inside, there was a line at video game store GameStop and several police officers were stationed to control the crowd.
Things were more quiet at a Walmart in Saddle Brook, New Jersey.
The nation's largest retailer has been offering its best deals online this month to deter any crowds from showing up on Black Friday.
Shoppers wear protective face masks as they look for Black Friday deals at the Ellenton Premium Outlet stores in Ellenton, Fla. Many shoppers are expected to turn to online shopping instead of in-store this holiday
Ellenton shoppers. The CDC has labeled shopping in crowded stores during the holidays a 'higher risk' activity and says people should limit any in-person shopping
A Black Friday shopper uses her smart phone to film herself shopping for handbags at a Furla store along Fifth Avenue. Many shoppers turned online to snap up deals rather than in store
A lone man wearing a mask walks past a 'love' and 'believe' sign outside of Macy's Friday. Thanksgiving Day hit a new record online as spending reached $5.1 billion, up 21.5 percent compared to a year ago, according to Adobe Analytics
Mike Mitchell went to a Walmart in Greensboro, North Carolina at 7:30 a.m. expecting to see it packed and the doorbuster deals gone like past Black Fridays.
Instead, the lot was mostly empty. What he wanted - a ride-on battery powered Chevy truck for his daughter - was still in stock, even though it was discounted to $98 from $149.
'It was kind of surprising,' he said. 'There was no line. It was very easy.'
At a popular shopping area in Pinellas Park, Florida, several storefronts were empty, and the only line was at a plasma donation center.
Several hundreds shoppers were lined up ahead of the 8 a.m. opening at Mall of America in Bloomington, Minnesota, a far cry from the usual crowd of several thousand on a normal Black Friday.
The smaller crowds were planned, said Jill Renslow, Mall of America's senior vice president of business development.
The mall spread out the Black Friday deals over eight days, kicking them off the Monday before Thanksgiving.
Renslow said many retail tenants pivoted more online and added curbside pickup.
How the holiday normally looks: Shoppers enter the Macy's flagship store in New York last year
She said she was confident that many tenants, particularly those that focus on health and wellness, casual apparel and home, will have a strong holiday season despite the smaller crowds.
'It feels good, and it's the right thing to do to keep everybody safe,' she said. 'Everyone is shopping a little differently but that's OK.'
Neil Saunders, managing director of GlobalData Retail, agreed that 'Black Friday is still critical'.
'No retailer wants it to be tarnished. It's still vital to get their consumers spending and get consumers into the holiday mood.'
Even before the pandemic, the day after Thanksgiving has been losing its luster as the unofficial start to the holiday shopping season for the past several years, with more stores offering holiday discounts throughout the month.
Still, Black Friday has remained the busiest day of the year, according to ShopperTrak, and is expected to hold that title again this year.
Coronavirus cases are surging across America as the nation enters the holiday season.
The number of people hospitalized with COVID-19 reached a record 90,481 yesterday after consistently setting new highs for the past five weeks.
The seven-day rolling average for deaths is currently just over 1,600 and the average daily infections are at 174,000.
On Thanksgiving Day, the US recorded a total of 110,611 new cases and 1,232 deaths. The figures are considerably lower than previous days in the past week, which is down to a lag in reporting due to the holiday.
Currently, 120 Americans are being infected every minute and 70 are dying each hour across the country.
