A vast majority of Democrats plan to cast their ballot by mail in November, further fueling warning from experts who claim the clear winner won't be known until weeks after Election Day.
The CEO of Hawkfish, a Democratic political data and technology firm, revealed in an interview with 'Axios on HBO' Monday night that there is a phenomenon the firm is predicting called the 'red mirage.'
The theory predicts mass 'chaos' in November as President Donald Trump is shown as the landslide victor on November 3, but then Democratic nominee Joe Biden is revealed to be the real winner after mail-in ballots are tabulated.
'When every legitimate vote is tallied and we get to that final day, which will be some day after Election Day, it will in fact show that what happened on election night was exactly that, a mirage,' Hawkfish CEO Josh Mendelsohn told Axios' White House and politics editor Margaret Talev. 'It looked like Donald Trump was in the lead and he fundamentally was not when every ballot gets counted.'
A new survey released as part of the interview revealed the 69 per cent of Democrats plan to vote by mail.
Only 19 per cent of Republicans say they will cast their ballot through mail-in voting measures, while 13 per cent of people who do not identify as a Republican or Democrat will vote by mail.
The CEO of a Democratic political data agency Hawkfish, Josh Mendelsohn, told Axios on HBO in an interview Monday that the firm has a theory of a 'red mirage' that will lead to 'chaos' in November
'When every legitimate vote is tallied and we get to that final day, which will be some day after Election Day, it will in fact show that what happened on election night was exactly that, a mirage,'Mendelsohn said
A survey from Axios on HBO shows that 69 per cent of Democrats plan to vote by mail, while only 19 per cent of Republicans plan to do the same
Based on this model, although it may appear Donald Trump wins on Election Day, the real results will be revealed days or even weeks later with Joe Biden emerging as the victor
The poll, which surveyed more than 17,000 respondents, reveals that Democrats are much more concerned with threats of coronavirus in voting in-person than Republicans.
This means Trump could hold a big electoral college and popular vote leads on election night.
The Trump campaign communications director, Tim Murtaugh, said in response to Mendelsohn's comments and the firm's analysis: 'The news media should get out of the business of predicting the future.'
One of Hawkfish's modeling scenarios, showing only 15 per cent of mail-in ballots being accounted for, shows Trump projected with a lead of 408-130 electoral votes on election night.
It is using numbers to create the hypothetical scenarios based on previous polling from FiveThirtyEight.
In that same analysis, once 75 per cent of mail ballots are counted, which could be around four days later, the lead could flip to Biden's favor. It shows Biden ultimately winning a massive victory with Electoral College votes splitting 334-204.
Mendelsohn claimed in the interview that the unconventional factors for Election Day this year, in the midst of the coronavirus pandemic, are setting the stage for potential chaos.
President Trump has constantly railed against universal mail-in voting as Democrats push for the measure as coronavirus continues to pose a threat to some demographics – like the elderly, ill and immunocompromised.
The survey suggests that Democrats are much more concerned with voting in-person due to coronavirus than Republicans. Trump has railed against universal mail-in voting, claiming it will lead to more instances of voter fraud and will disproportionately benefit Democrats
Hawkfish was founded by former New York City mayor, billionaire and former 2020 Democratic presidential candidate Michael Bloomberg in the spring of 2020
The president claimed mail-in voting will cause higher instances of fraud, and has insisted it would disproportionately benefit Democrats in November.
Hawkfish is a political data and technology agency founded by former New York City mayor and billionaire Michael Bloomberg.
The firm was founded in the spring of last year in an effort to support, 'Democratic candidates, good causes, and common sense solutions.'
A few months later, Bloomberg announced he was running for president in 2020 – an effort he abandoned after his money could only take him so far and he dropped out of the race in March 2020.
Trump has claimed he will accept the results of the election, but has added the caveat that if universal mail-in voting is implemented – meaning every registered voter is automatically sent a ballot in the mail – the results would not be trustworthy.
