Foreign Office study says Eastern Europeans are more likely to go to Spain or Italy than the UK
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Email Alan Travis, home affairs editor
The Guardian, Friday 5 April 2013
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The tone of the report is in sharp contrast to last week's immigration speech by David Cameron. Photograph: Chris Radburn/AFP/Getty Images
A Foreign Office-commissioned report has directly challenged claims by David Cameron and others that Britain faces a significant new wave of immigration from eastern Europe when labour movement restrictions on Bulgaria and Romania are lifted next January.
The study by the National Institute of Economic and Social Research says that Britain is unlikely to be the preferred destination for Bulgarians and Romanians and says those who do come are not planning to exploit the benefits system and public services. The researchers say it is not possible to put an accurate or reliable figure on how many people will come to Britain but adds that those who do move are far more likely to go to Spain, Italy and to a lesser extent Germany.
The report drew immediate criticism that it was a "bucket of whitewash" from anti-migration campaigner Sir Andrew Green, of Migration Watch UK, for failing to estimate the likely scale of migration after next year's changes.
Keith Vaz, chairman of the Commons home affairs committee, criticised the lack of any estimate of expected arrivals and demanded the government commission a full study into the impact of the move.
The authors say that those who do come to the UK will do so to improve their job prospects and living standards and not as benefit or health "tourists". They are likely to be young and without families, at least initially, and so their impact on public services is likely to be modest. Unlike the wave of Polish, Lithuanian and other east European migration since 2004, Romanians and Bulgarians are much more likely to head for London and south-east England rather than be dispersed across the country.
The study commissioned by the British embassy in Bucharest in order to estimate the impact on British public services, was described by the minister for Europe, David Lidington, as a welcome contribution to the debate. "The report will help to shape this government's work to build an immigration system that works in the national interest," he said.
The tone of the report is in sharp contrast to last week's immigration speech by David Cameron, in which he promised tougher rules denying new migrants access to welfare benefits, housing and other public services. It also undermines the claims of some Tory MPs that as many as 350,000 to 450,000 Romanians and Bulgarians are poised to move to Britain from the end of this year.
The NIESR report says that potential migration of families from Romania and Bulgaria could increase pressure on primary school places in some areas but says the scale will depend on whether they arrive with children or settle in Britain and start families. Some extra language help will be needed. There is also likely to be added pressure at the lower end of the privately-rented housing market, potentially driving up rents.
The research says that as most of those who come will generally be younger, healthy and working, they are unlikely to make major demands on health services. Although they do say that the higher rates of TB in Romania and Bulgaria have implications for future NHS service planning.
The assessment of only a modest impact on public services rests on the evidence that much existing east European migration to Britain is temporary. They say if that pattern changes and they come to settle long-term then it will have significant implications for British public services.
The report says that any estimate of future numbers coming to Britain is likely to be inaccurate and misleading. The economic conditions in Bulgaria and Romania mean that the potential for emigration is significant, it adds, but Britain, it says, is unlikely to be the preferred destination.
"The main destination countries for Romanian and Bulgarian (EU2) migrants are Spain and Italy, and to a lesser extent Germany. These choices reflect restrictions and freedoms on the right of Romanians and Bulgarians to work across the EU, employment opportunities and similarities in language. As time goes on, the presence of social and economic networks of existing migrants may mean that EU2 continue to migrate to Spain and Italy rather than other EU member states." Rising unemployment in Spain could have an impact however.
The report says that the numbers already living in Britain are relatively low, at 26,000 Bulgarians and 80,000 Romanians. They are overwhelmingly aged under 35 and tend to have slightly higher skill levels than similar migrants in the rest of Europe. They tend to work in hospitality, cleaning services and construction.
The authors add that there are probably Bulgarians and Romanians also working in Britain in the "grey economy" with a spurious "self-employed" status: "It is possible that once restrictions are lifted, actual numbers of EU2 citizens working in the UK may not actually increase substantially," they conclude.
